SPTB 345 – SPORT BUSINESS ANALYTICS
SPRING SEMESTER 2021
“Knowledge Festival” #3
** PLEASE READ THESE INSTRUCTIONS **
This “knowledge festival” is open book, open notes, open reference materials. That is, you may consult any written information sources, including online ones, in completing this “festival.”
On previous “festivals” I have asked you not to consult with others in the class, in working these problems. Nevertheless, it was pretty obvious that several of you had in fact done so. So I will relax that restriction on this “festival” – I really don’t want to be sending a lot of cases to the Honor System Council right before graduation. I will ask you to indicate below whom you worked with. (Joint submissions are NOT allowed – individual papers only, however.)
This “knowledge festival” is optional. Yes, you read that right. You don’t have to do it if you don’t want to. If you choose not to, I will simply use the other two “festival” grades in computing your course grade. If you choose to take this “festival” it cannot hurt you – I will ignore the grade if it’s lower than the average from the previous ones.
The four problems are equally weighted.
As always, SHOW YOUR WORK. When in doubt … make something up!! If you’re not sure how to answer a problem, at least attempt something. Partial credit is your friend.
Please submit a single file (either word processor document or .pdf file) – any images should be cut-and-pasted into place. This is due no later than 4:30 p.m. on Friday, April 23, to my “offshore” email ([email protected]).
Your name: ___________________________________________________________________
Names of folk you consulted with (if any):
There are four games left in the regular season, and the Albuquerque Isotopes have a one-game lead over the Wichita Wingnuts. They don’t play each other, however, in these final four games. Start with the simplest model – that there’s a 50% chance of winning for each game.
The sports analytics folk at the “fivethirtyeight” website made the following forecast for the Padre’s game at Pittsburgh on Thursday:
Las Vegas oddsmakers (per the website vegasinsider.com) quoted odds on the game as San Diego -150 / Pittsburgh +140.
So far this season in Major League Baseball (through Wednesday’s games), there have been 406 home runs hit. That has happened over the course a total of 11,795 times at bat in 178 games played, meaning that in an average game each team has approximately 33 times at bat.
The Boravian Dwarf Jai-Alai league is a very small professional sports league in a very small country. There are only three teams: the Aardvarks, the Brazilnuts, and the Caltrops (denoted by A, B, and C in the data table below). They play a very abbreviated season – each team faces each other team once at home and once on the road, which means a grand total of six games for the entire season. Results for the most recent season are given below:
Game # Home Team Score Road Team Score
1 A 12 B 8
2 B 12 C 3
3 C 6 A 9
4 C 8 B 6
5 B 15 A 9
6 A 12 C 4
Recall in class that we built models for game outcomes, as follows:
[Score Difference, Home – Away] =
[Home advantage] + [Home team strength] – [Visiting team strength] + Error
We used linear regression to estimate the various parameters (team strength, home advantage).
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